Performance metrics + customer attribution analysis · Shopify & Ad Spend
| Month | Ad Spend | Orders | Revenue | AOV | ROAS | Blend CPP | Naive CAC | Lagged CAC | New % | New AOV | Ret AOV | A/Cs Created | Still in Pool |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | $14,483 | 3,938 | $362,471 | $92.04 | 25.0x | $3.68 | $16.04 | — | 22.9% | $86.22 | $93.78 | 2,698 | 1,795 |
| February | $0 | 3,086 | $299,746 | $97.13 | — | — | $0.00 | $28.91* | 16.2% | $86.84 | $99.13 | 1,029 | 528 |
| March | $55,739 | 5,465 | $515,474 | $94.32 | 9.2x | $10.20 | $37.76 | $18.88 | 27.0% | $87.72 | $96.77 | 4,549 | 3,073 |
| April | $71,954 | 5,197 | $486,110 | $93.54 | 6.8x | $13.85 | $43.27 | $38.39 | 32.0% | $88.48 | $95.92 | 4,853 | 3,190 |
| May | $87,890 | 5,843 | $549,843 | $94.10 | 6.3x | $15.04 | $49.30 | $44.82 | 30.5% | $88.52 | $96.55 | 4,027 | 2,244 |
| June MTD | $62,884 | 4,079 | $377,013 | $92.43 | 6.0x | $15.42 | $22.04 | $26.42 | 35.6% | $88.13 | $94.80 | 2,896 | 43 |
| H1 Total | $293,950 | 27,608 | $2,590,657 | $93.84 | 8.8x | $10.61 | $32.02 | $32.02 | 28.2% | — | — | 20,052 | 10,873 |
* February lagged CAC = January spend ($14,483) ÷ February first-time buyers (501) = $28.91. 50/50 lagged CAC = (current × 0.5 + previous × 0.5) ÷ converters.
February had $0 in ad spend — yet 501 new customers made their first purchase. These customers were "bought" by January's $14,483 and trickled in over the following weeks.
Jan's total paid conversions: 1,404 (903 direct + 501 lagged) from $14,483
These accounts were created during H1 but haven't purchased yet. They've shown intent (browsed, added to cart, started checkout) and represent future revenue with $0 additional ad cost.
Estimated future value at avg AOV: ~$950K+
2,896 accounts created → 2,853 purchased = only 43 left in the lag pool. This drastic shift (normally 44–56% convert immediately) suggests June traffic was lower-funnel — retargeting, email, and organic rather than cold prospecting. Cutting ad spend from $88K to $63K trimmed top-of-funnel fat and the remaining traffic was ready to buy.
| Month | Naive CAC | Lagged CAC |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | $16.04 | — |
| Feb | $0.00 | $28.91 |
| Mar | $37.76 | $18.88 |
| Apr | $43.27 | $38.39 |
| May | $49.30 | $44.82 |
| Jun | $22.04 | $26.42 |
| H1 True | $32.02 ($293,950 ÷ 9,179 customers) | |
Based on Feb 15 – Jun 27 data window. Younger cohorts are still maturing — Feb cohort (~4.5 months) is the benchmark.
| Cohort | Customers | Avg Orders | Repeat Rate | LTV (LTD) | New CAC | LTV:CAC | Maturity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2026 | — | 1.92 | 49.1% | $192.23 | $0.00 | ∞ | Mature |
| Mar 2026 | 1,476 | 1.53 | 36.2% | $146.89 | $37.76 | 3.9x | 3.5mo |
| Apr 2026 | 1,663 | 1.31 | 25.3% | $121.96 | $43.27 | 2.8x | 2.5mo |
| May 2026 | 1,783 | 1.10 | 9.5% | $101.20 | $49.30 | 2.1x | 1.5mo |
| Jun 2026 | 2,853 | 1.02 | 2.3% | $91.33 | $22.04 | 4.1x | <1mo |
The naive same-month CAC swings ($16 → $49 → $22) are noise from attribution lag. May didn't become expensive — it was paying forward for June conversions. June didn't become cheap — May's spend was finishing its work. The real number: $32.02 — H1 spend ÷ total new customers.
At $55–88K monthly spend, ROAS stabilizes at 6.0–6.8x. Every dollar returns $6+. Jan's 25x on $14K spend isn't representative — the real scaled efficiency is 6x, and that's healthy.
At ~4.5 months mature, the Feb cohort averages $192 in lifetime revenue at 1.92 orders/customer. 49% have reordered. Projected mature LTV of $200–250 against a $32 CAC means 6–8x LTV:CAC — a very strong acquisition engine.
No degradation as you scaled spend 6x. The product-market fit is consistent — new buyers buy the same mix regardless of volume. That's rare.
These accounts were created but haven't purchased. They browsed, added to cart, or started checkout — the intent is there. May's cohort still has 2,244 accounts to convert with $0 additional ad cost. A simple post-purchase email flow targeting these accounts is pure margin.
June converted nearly every account immediately. Only 43 left in the lag pool vs 2,244 in May. Cutting spend from $88K to $63K trimmed top-of-funnel fat — the remaining traffic was retargeting + ready-to-buy. Higher spend ≠ better results; $60–65K looks like the efficiency sweet spot.
Even with lagged attribution smoothing, the 50/50 lagged CAC hit $44.82 in May — the highest of H1. June's pullback to $26.42 suggests $88K in monthly spend was oversaturating. The $60–65K range achieved nearly the same order volume (4,079 vs 5,197) at much better unit economics.
3,086 orders with zero ad spend. Either organic/direct is massive, or there's missing data. If real, that's an incredible baseline — $300K/month with no paid acquisition cost. Worth verifying.
Same-month CAC attribution creates wild swings ($16 → $49 → $22) that make marketing look erratic. May didn't suddenly become expensive — it was paying forward. June didn't suddenly become cheap — May's spend was completing.
That's what it costs to acquire a customer. Not $16, not $49 — $32. Every dollar of H1 ad spend divided by every customer who showed up. Simple, honest, no guesswork.